THIS is the latest report in the ACM's series on opinion polling which can be accessed through the fontpage icon in the left hand column, " Opinion Polling"
THE latest Newspoll showing the lowest support for a vague undefined politicians’ republic for seventeen years (41%) is consistent with trends in polling since the referendum. With the margin of error this could now be in the thirties
Details of the Newspoll are below or can be seen in a larger format here.
This Newspoll is also consistent with our 13 conclusions on polling on republicanism in our analysis on this site.
Until we are shown to be wrong, we stand by those conclusions.
A very importnat point to make is that this result cannot be explained just by referring to the impact of the Royal wedding.
Until now the republicans’ spokesman has been saying that the wedding would be an ideal time to campaign for a republic.
Now they are saying the wedding is the reason for the poor poll.
They can't have it both ways.
An analysis of the trends in recent years recorded by the major pollsters – Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan – is consistent with this poll.
…young respondents…
The breakdown of the responses from different age groups will worry the republicans.
Both media and campaign polling at the time of the referendum and since reveals a bell shaped curve.
Support for a republic remains strongest among the middle-aged, weakest among the aged and weaker among the young.
When former senator Susan Ryan and the present Minister Nicola Roxon were wrong at the time when they said that all they have to do is wait until the older generation of monarchists leave this world. They are still wrong.
They will be waiting a very long time, if ever to achieve their aim.
…voting intentions years ahead…
And republicans would be unwise to invest much hope in the rise in republican support at the end of the reign. They make a mistake in believing that this finally is that elusive silver bullet which will result in some vague undefined politicans' dropping into their laps.
The point is that opinion polls about something occurring years from now are about as reliable as weather forecasts made now for the same time.
..the task for the republicans…
In a democracy the republicans are entitled to make such proposals as they wish.
Thomas Flynn, the young Executive Director of ACM has identified the indulgence which is accorded to one side to this debate.
Had the constitutionalist monarchists lost the referendum in 1999, no one would be seriously allowing them a second chance today. The media and the politicians would not give them the time of day.
The time is surely over when the taxpayers should fund the republicans' search for a model or for a process to achieve their agenda. The time is over too for the predictable republican stunts which dominate our national days, especially Australia Day and on one appalling occasion, ANZAC Day.
The republicans should now pursue their agenda with maturity and in treating the issues of fundamental constiutional change and a new flag with the seriousness they deserve.
Above all they should accept that the Autralian people deserve to hear considered, serious argument about change , and not stunts, abuse or ridicule.
