More evidence is coming in indicating support for a politicians' republic is collapsing both here, in New Zealand , and in the UK including Scotland.
The trend was well established before the Royal Wedding.
A special Morgan Poll taken on the nights of 3 and 4 May 2011 finds that a clear majority of Australians (77%) watched at least part of the Royal Wedding between Prince William and Kate Middleton last week.
The poll finds that support for retaining the monarchy has surged to 55% (up 7% since November 2010 — its highest since July 1991).
In contrast only 34% (down 8% since November 2010) of Australians believe Australia should become a republic with an elected President while 11% (up 1%) are undecided.
An ACM assessment then further details of the Morgan Poll follow.
…ACM's assessment of the Morgan Poll…
There are six points to make on the Morgan Poll.
1.Referendum The 1999 referendum Morgan Poll found 38% favoured the monarchy, 54% a republic and 8% uncommitted.
But in the referendum only 43% voted for the republic. (By ignoring abstentions and informal votes, the Electoral Commission find this was around 45%. ACM has strong legal advice that the AEC should consider the informal votes.)
The difference between the poll an dthe actual vote is explained by some combination of the usual margin of error, the fact that most uncommitted voted No and some republicans objecting to the model.
The republican ‘No’ voters, I think, were not as many as some people think.
But I agree with republican Professor Greg Craven that the republican No voters would be significantly larger if a ‘direct elect ‘ model were put.
Why? Those who object to direct election are far more prominent. They include most politicians and a good part of the media.
2.Likely vote now. We can assume from this 1999 precedent that the No vote in a referendum taken now would be above 55% and heading towards 66%.
The politicians know this. That is why the Prime Minister has put off action until the end of the reign – when she will probably will be enjoying her superannuation.
3.The Model. The Morgan Poll asks about a specific model, the one assumed to be the most popular.
4.The Youth Vote. Support for a republic is even lower among young people -31%. Morgan unusually polls people 14 to 17.
This is consistent with the last Morgan Poll. It is also consistent with the “time bomb” ACM has long warned republicans about. Intensive polling at the time of the referendum – and since – show lower levels of support for a republic among the young.
5.Trends.The Morgan Poll confirms the trend of falling support over time for a republic. This confirms the ACM assessment that the 2009 UMR poll was a rogue poll.
6.Labor voters. A majority of Labor voters do not support a republic. This was confirmed in the referendum.
…Morgan Poll summary…
The pollster says that if Prince Charles were to be crowned King, support for the Monarchy drops to 47%, (up 6% since November 2010) only slightly more than the 45% (down 6%) of Australians that would want a Republic with an elected President, while 8% of Australians can’t say.
( Continued below)
However, if Prince Charles were to be crowned King, the Morgan Poll finds that support for the Monarchy drops to 47%, (up 6% since November 2010) only slightly more than the 45% (down 6%) of Australians that would want a Republic with an elected President, while 8% of Australians can’t say.
But as ACM points out, the uncommitted tend to vote No in a referendum.
The pollster says that if Prince William were to be crowned King, 55%, (up 7% since November 2010) would want to continue with the Monarchy. Only 35% (down 8%) of Australians would want a Republic with an elected President and 10% of Australians couldn’t say.
Analysis by voting intention shows slightly more ALP supporters (48%) want a Republic with an elected President compared to 43% who would prefer to continue with the Monarchy, says Morgan.
But ACM again draws attention to the uncommitted who can be expected to vote No. That is what they did in 1999.
…"Not in this reign"…
the pollster points out that L-NP supporters clearly favour continuing with the Monarchy (70%) and only 21% want a Republic with an elected President.
Mr. Turnbull, Mr. Hockey, Ms. Bishop and all of the republican Liberals will no doubt take note. Their delicious refrain will be " Not in this reign."
….Gary Morgan says:
"A large majority of Australians (77%) tuned in to at least part of the wedding of Prince William & Kate Middleton last week — which compares very favourably with the estimated 54% (just under 10 million) Australians that watched last year’s Melbourne Cup. On the back of the Royal Wedding support for retaining the Monarchy (55%, up 7%) has risen strongly while only 34% (down 8%) of Australians now want a Republic with a directly elected President.
"L-NP supporters (70%) are clearly in favour of retaining the Monarchy and only 21% want a Republic, while ALP supporters are fairly evenly split with 48% wanting a Republic and 43% wanting to retain the Monarchy.
"Interestingly, for the first time more Australians (47%, up 6%) want to retain the Monarchy if Prince Charles were to be crowned King rather than become a Republic (45%, down 6%). Support for the Monarchy (55%) if Prince William were crowned King is the same as general support for the Monarchy."
This special Morgan Poll was conducted by telephone on the nights of May 3-4 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 660 Australians.