October 27

Royal Visit 2011 – Poll


The latest Morgan Poll (25 & 26/10) confirms that without doubt a referendum held on the removal of the Crown from the constitution would be overwhelmingly defeated.

It would be a bigger landslide than in 1999 .


The poll also reflects the error of the federal government in keeping the Queen for far too long in Canberra.  Although there are many loyal royalists in Canberra, it is dominated by republicans, as was the Parliamentary reception. The Morgan Poll may be seen here

The result was that the people of New South Wales and in particular Sydney said they felt rebuffed.  This explains the fact that  New South Wales is the only state in this poll to record a higher than 40% support for a republic.  The monarchy would still easily prevail in any referendum in New South Wales but this polling results in the state is most unusual; New South Wales  usually records  strong support for  the constitutional monarchy.  

But on this occasion it didn't.  Almost everyone from New South Wales who spoke to me about the Royal visit lamented the fact that the Queen would not be in Sydney. 

The city is known worldwide and it is the oldest.  The Opera House and the Harbour Bridge are often use as symbols of Australia .There is no doubt that the people of Sydney New South Wales were hurt by the absence of a visit . 

I would not of course be so paranoid as to say the republican politicians did this deliberately.  They would not do that, would they?

…reading the poll…

Returning to the poll, there is a slight increase in support for a republic, but the rise is well within the margin of error.

In these opinion polls the important thing is the trend line over a period of time and across a number of different polls.  These come to one conclusion; a referendum would fail and fail more overwhelmingly than in the 1999 landslide.

The most important figure in these polls is support for a republic, or as we would say , a politicians’ Republic.  It is clear that in any referendum on this issue, the undecided will tend to vote with those in favour of the No case. (I am delighted to say that an expert on these matters agrees with me on this.  I shall publish his opinion here shortly)

The reason for people telling pollsters they are  undecided is often tbecause they are either unwilling to tell the pollster what they really think.  Others make their minds up as the vote approaches following the well-known advice, "If you don't know vote no.”  (That was a formula offered to the unsure during the referendum campaign by the noted broadcaster Alan Jones)

…pro-republican vote always lower in referendum…


In addition, the voting in favour of a Republic in an opinion poll will always overstate what would happen in a referendum.

This is because a number of voters in favour of a particular republic are strongly opposed to the particular model being offered at the referendum.

In the latest Morgan poll support for a Republic has risen from 35 to 39%.  I would expect this to fall by up to 10% in a referendum. 

This of course would be a disaster for the Republicans.  This of course is the reason why the politicians are saying they will not hold this during the current reign.  There is another consideration which is impacting on the politicians.  This is the polling is also telling them that were they to propose this the public would be extremely hostile and see this as a complete waste of time.

The poll in the poll also finds that support for a republic if Prince Charles became king would rise to 48% and if Prince William became king would fall to 40%.  These are no more than indications of what people feel now about something which will probably occur well into the future, possibly 15 or even more years from now 20.

 Imagine people's opinions on how they will vote in say 10 years time.


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