July 23

And who will win?

In a recent column I mentioned a prediction that Julia Gillard would replace Kevin Rudd. This prediction, a serious and considered one, was made by John Stone, former Secretary to the Treasury and Senator for Queensland. 

Mr. Stone, a leading commentator on economic matters and a prominent federalist – and, I might add, a constitutional monarchist – was writing in Australia’s leading political journal, Quadrant.

The lawyer who instituted the 1999 High Court case which led to a majority ruling that the Australian Crown is separate from the British Crown also made a prediction.

He predicted over two years ago that Julia Gillard would replace Kevin Rudd. This was in the 14 April 2008 issue of Sing Tao, Australia’s leading Chinese language newspaper.

The lawyer is Dr Thomas Chiu, who specialises in advising on foreign investment in Australia and is a prominent media commentator in Chinese language circles.  

Incidentally the 1999 decision, although about other constitutional issues, was a powerful one for the No case, demonstrating that we are totally independent and that the Crown is fully Australianised.

…who will win?….

I have not asked either who will win the 2010 election. I notice the nation’s leading psephologist, Malcolm Mackerras, has made a prediction in The Australian. His analysis and the celebrated Mackerras Pendulum have long been essential tools in understanding Australian elections.

Although forthright in his predications, he concedes that he is not always correct. He tells the story that he once told the media that the Queensland Bjelke –Petersen government faced electoral defeat.
But the government was returned. Soon after he received a parcel from the Premier, Sir Joh Bjelke -Petersen.  On opening it he found that it contained a scrubbing brush. On telephoning to congratulate Sir Joh, he asked why he had sent the brush.

“It’s to scrub the egg off your face,” Sir Joh replied.

 In any event, if I have read Professor Mackerras correctly, he thinks the 2010 federal result will be clear, and that regional differences will be balanced by the overall trend.  He thinks there will be a strong Labor victory.

My recollection is he thought the two by elections following Tony Abbott’s election as leader and the Liberal Party dropping support of the ETS would go badly for them.

They won both. 



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