April 30

Republic support crashes, especially among the young


Support for a vague undefined politicians’ republic has collapsed, according to an Essential Poll published on 30 April 2014. Worse for the republicans, the young are now confirmed as the least republican. If a referendum were to be held today, the Yes vote as a percentage would be likely to be in the twenties.

The polling result is in accordance with the trends identified by ACM on its principal site.  With the youth result, the trend line is likely to fall further over time. From 42% in Essential’s 2010 poll, only 33% of Australians are now in favour of Australian becoming a republic.

Note that the question, ”Are you in favour or against Australia becoming a republic?” does not indicate the model. Once the republicans reveal their preferred model, support falls further.

… youth support now lowest…

The ARM claim that the young have been the most republican for 30 years is once again shown to be an invention.As with the recent Fairfax -Nielson poll, the young have replaced the old as the least republican with 29% of those aged 30 and under favouring a republic.

The middle aged remain the most republican but this is falling. 35% of those aged 31-50 and 33% of those aged 50+ are in favour of Australia becoming a republic.  Only Greens voters produced a clear majority in favour of a republic, 51%.In referendums, the undecided are likley to vote No.

This means that as in 1999, both Coalition and Labor voters will reject a republic. Males (42%) were far more likely than females (24%) to be in favour of a republic.

 ….how likely is a republic?…

Asked ”Will Australia ever become a republic?” 46% believe it is likely and  37% unlikely. Greens (59%) and Labor (50%) voters are more likely to consider it likely that Australia will one day become a republic. Lib/Nat voters (41%) are less likely.55% of males, compared to 38% of females believe it is likely that Australia will one day become a republic.

There was less difference than before by age, with those under 30 (43%) being slightly less likely than those aged 31-50 (45%) and 50+ (49%) to think that it is likely Australia will one day become a republic. The percentage of Australians who believe that it likely that Australia will become a republic one day has dropped -6% from 52% in June 2012 to 46% now.

…William as King…

Asked ”Would you approve or disapprove of Prince William becoming King of Australia at some time in the future?” over half (54%)  approve and only 26% disapprove.Lib/Nat (68%) and Other voters (58%) are the most likely to approve. Labor (45%) and Greens (44%) voters are less likely. Males (49%) are less likely than females (60%) to approve of Prince William becoming King of Australia one day.


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